The surveys had the candidates in the top 11 right. The candidate rankings that are not the same, yes, but are they really that off?
Surveys have a margin of error. Surveys are made based on sampling,
it is not done on 100% of the voting population, and hence it is called “sampling”.
Other factors that should also be considered are the alleged
massaging of surveys by people with the means to do so (like conditioning areas
where the surveys will be done) or the effectiveness of last minute campaign
strategies and other last minute events.
Analyst all agree that UNA started strong but towards the
end of the campaign period that Team Pnoy overtook UNA and ended much stronger,
which was reflected in the trend seen in the surveys done.
On the last survey, it was predicted that a 9 (Team Pnoy) vs. 3 (UNA) result is
likely to happen, where the only sure bets for UNA is Nancy Binay and JV
Ejercito, while the other one will be for the #12 spot (potentially: Honasan, Enrile,
Zubiri or Gordon). And, isn’t it the case now? That Honasan is #12 while the
others are trailing closely behind him.
Copies of Pulse Asia Surveys:
April 20-22, 2013
 |
| From philstar.com / Click to enlarge |
May 10-11, 2013 (just right before the elections)
 |
| From raissarobles.com / Click picture to enlarge |
The unpredictable
Grace Poe as #1?
She ran a great campaign and it seemed all the other factors
just came together for her. She was known as her father’s daughter, yes, but they
say that what convinced others was also how she behaved in the debates and
sorties. There she was able to show that she is sincere, that she had depth and,
perhaps, that she isn’t just her father’s daughter for those where that fact just
isn’t enough.
According to an article I read, the conversion rate of people who
has witnessed her in debates or sorties are 2 out of 3 (not sure how they
derived this number but let’s say it’s scientific). That’s about 67% of the people
who get converted to become her supporter, imagine that?
I truly hope that she is for real. (Or at least, close to real)
I truly hope that she is for real. (Or at least, close to real)
She has always been in the top 12 in surveys. Perhaps, she
just didn’t have enough machinery to massage the surveys? Perhaps, those who
topped the surveys were busy fighting for the top spot and they dragged each
other down, which could have pushed Grace Poe to the top spot. It’s all possible.
I took a market research class in college (just saying, that
I do have some idea of the basics of surveying) and, in my opinion,
the survey vs. the results are pretty close.
Well, cause, you know: The top 12 predicted currently are in
the top 12 results so far. Um, should we really be crying foul?
No comments:
Post a Comment