It is the Economy

Ever since the book excused was raised, it sounded quite doubtful. The need for laptop or any other device of a person who’s suppose to be in prison because said person is writing a book? It sounds lame. But they, maybe she wanted to go the route of most past president, prime ministers and leaders. She wanted to write a book, well, ok then.

But, wouldn’t you know? It’s an “economic paper” that she comes up with, one that accuses the current government of politicking and not focusing on the economy, which caused growth to deteriorate. I don’t know the exact content of this paper yet but the news said that she was citing the 7.9% growth rate during the end of her term (which was said to be fueled by election spending) as evidence that the economy them is better that today, that's posting only 3.2% growth rate, and that because of this the current government has let the economy go.

I do not agree that the economy is in a bad place. This is obviously an attempt at throwing some rocks at the high approval and survey ratings of the current administration, and to somewhat discredit the government camp in preparations for the trials.

At this point, we expect almost everything that comes our from Elena Horn's mouth and GMA's camp is probably more propaganda than anything else, let's suspend this notion and just look at the issue: the economy.

I am currently redoing the macroeconomics portion of my paper, so I've just looked into the performance of the country in 2011 and have read various studies on the prospects for 2012.

The Philippines current has some relatively good macroeconomic fundamentals. Yes, growth slowed down but this was largely because of external factors like the Arab Spring, which cause issues with oil prices and supply, the Japan Tsunami, which cause disruptions with manufacturers, the US economic crisis and the Euro debt crisis – both of these crisis remain unsettled and there certainly are some looming risks of contagion for Asia and for the Philippines. Considering, all these global factors, the country, we could say, is really not in a bad place. Even better, the country is currently somewhat insulated from these global financial issues due to our stronger domestic consumption, strong remittances, and new monetary policies, which also controlled the inflation.

In addition, credit rating agencies have been upgrading our country ratings at the time when countries like the US and other European countries are getting downgraded. Moody’s raised the country’s foreign and local currency long-term bond ratings from Ba3 to Ba2 (two notches below investment grade) in June 2011 and Fitch raised the long-term foreign currency rating from BB to BB plus (one notch below investment grade). These upgrades are said to be given on the basis of our improved fiscal consolidation, stable macroeconomic standing, and external position strength.

International reserves are healthy, increased by 40% year-on-year (Sept 2011) and at an all time high of record high of $76B at the end of December 2011.

I respected GMA as an economist. I know that during her time, she managed our economy well, albeit also well enough to stay afloat despite all the money that’s believed to have been spent and siphoned elsewhere. (Was that the emergency fund that was spent for her travels? On Le Cirque? Where did the money from the AFP fund go again? How about the Owwa fund? And the list goes on...)

But who are we to believe? Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, and Fitch, internationally recognized agencies that are so recognized, the US and the world was sent into a frenzy when S&P’s downgraded the US. Or, PGMA, ex economics professor, ex Philippine President, and current detainee, arrested for electoral sabotage, about to be on trial and definitely has a lot of hidden agenda...?

What of the politics of division that she also mentions? When has politics ever been united? (other then when you have a dictatorship, I suppose.) If GMA and her cohorts are truly is interested in keeping politics united and truly concerned about the growth of this country, then why don’t they just stop all the conspiring and form one big loving circle of political unity?

Of course, it is highly idealistic and unrealistic to believe that opposing parties, politicians and players alike, would ever unite and just do things for the common good. That, will never happen.

I am not saying that it is because Aquino is the most competent and impressive man on earth that the country is in a good economic place right now, all I’m saying is that the economy is not in a bad spot right now, therefore, the whole point of her economic paper, which is you know called an “economic paper” after all, is kind of moot.

And, with this I ask, did anyone ever blame Ramos for the bad economy at the time of the Asian Financial Crisis?