Survey vs. Results: Why are they crying foul?

Why do they keep on saying the surveys are wrong because of the current results? Why do they say that maybe the surveys are right and the PCOS are wrong, when the surveys predicted the top 12 pretty much correctly?

The surveys had the candidates in the top 11 right. The candidate rankings that are not the same, yes, but are they really that off?

Surveys have a margin of error. Surveys are made based on sampling, it is not done on 100% of the voting population, and hence it is called “sampling”.  

Other factors that should also be considered are the alleged massaging of surveys by people with the means to do so (like conditioning areas where the surveys will be done) or the effectiveness of last minute campaign strategies and other last minute events.

Analyst all agree that UNA started strong but towards the end of the campaign period that Team Pnoy overtook UNA and ended much stronger, which was reflected in the trend seen in the surveys done.

On the last survey, it was predicted  that a 9 (Team Pnoy) vs. 3 (UNA) result is likely to happen, where the only sure bets for UNA is Nancy Binay and JV Ejercito, while the other one will be for the #12 spot (potentially: Honasan, Enrile, Zubiri or Gordon). And, isn’t it the case now? That Honasan is #12 while the others are trailing closely behind him.     

Copies of Pulse Asia Surveys:  

April 20-22, 2013

From philstar.com / Click to enlarge

May 10-11, 2013 (just right before the elections)

From raissarobles.com / Click picture to enlarge

The unpredictable Grace Poe as #1?

She ran a great campaign and it seemed all the other factors just came together for her. She was known as her father’s daughter, yes, but they say that what convinced others was also how she behaved in the debates and sorties. There she was able to show that she is sincere, that she had depth and, perhaps, that she isn’t just her father’s daughter for those where that fact just isn’t enough.

According to an article I read, the conversion rate of people who has witnessed her in debates or sorties are 2 out of 3 (not sure how they derived this number but let’s say it’s scientific). That’s about 67% of the people who get converted to become her supporter, imagine that?

I truly hope that she is for real. (Or at least, close to real)

She has always been in the top 12 in surveys. Perhaps, she just didn’t have enough machinery to massage the surveys? Perhaps, those who topped the surveys were busy fighting for the top spot and they dragged each other down, which could have pushed Grace Poe to the top spot. It’s all possible.

I took a market research class in college (just saying, that I do have some idea of the basics of surveying) and, in my opinion, the survey vs. the results are pretty close.  

Well, cause, you know: The top 12 predicted currently are in the top 12 results so far. Um, should we really be crying foul?  

Voted / Post Election Coverage

I exercised my right, for what it’s worth.

I must (somewhat embarrassingly) admit that I ended up voting for some people who I didn't want to vote for / wouldn't vote for IF I had better choices.

I was torn between voting for 12 people or just leaving the other spots blank (because I really am not convinced enough about the others). In the end, I forced myself to vote for 12. I went for "the lesser evil" ideology (I still don't know if this is a good thing) but I figured this right to vote is mine so I will just own it.

It is my right to make the stupid choices and my right to vote for the lost causes.

That is, I would rather that I make the stupid choices (at least they're my stupid choices) and not let other voters pick the remaining senators for me, which is what would happen if I don't make the choices myself and leave them blank. Get it? 

When you think about it, with only 33 choices, statistically each candidate has about 1 in 3 chances in getting in or about a 36% chance at being a senator. Factor in all the unknowns, the crazy ones, the "religious" ones, the trapos, the relatives of trapos... AND, there really isn't a lot of decent ones to choose from.

SIGH. 

Voted

Maybe it’s because I usually vote in the afternoon that I never have a hard time voting. (And, no, my precinct isn't one of those fancy private schools. It's a public school, albeit a big clean-looking one.)

This time, lines were still short and the people were still pleasant. The PCOS in our precinct actually worked. Overall, the experience was good enough.

On other things, when you get out of your car random people still hand you sample ballots. (I just take it, partly out of curiosity.)

But I don't know if I am just a fast walker but it just didn't seem like the spot where I was given these sample ballots was 30 mins away from the voting area. Apparently, I just found out, this is the rule. So, hmm?

Snapshots of some election paraphernalia:  

Talaga lang ha: She added HanepBuhay to her printed name?
Talaga lang: Ang laki ng font!
Not so alphabetical: #32 pero nasa taas
Wonder who funded the printing of this one? Any guesses?

I call this - a sample ballot with an identity crisis (OR is it's identity just Anti-LP?)

Post Election Coverage 

The night before the midterm election, I watched ANC’s kampanya serye documentaries, one about political dynasties and the other about a politician's imaging. I really enjoyed them. They were really so well made.

Must say, I am totally psyched about all the election coverage. Call me weird but I like watching all these analysts and industry people talking about their campaigns, strategy, sociological and survey analysis, statistics, observations, and overall thoughts on the election results. To me, at least, it’s like reality TV meets sociology and anthropology meets marketing meets politics.

But other than my weird penchant for weird reality TV, I am also glad that networks now have these types of programming as I believe they owe it to the people to actually give them something more than fluff when the occasion calls for it. 

Yes, I expect the networks to also make money and supply the people with other programming that are more for entertainment and ratings (because it is a business, after all) but during times like these, I hope the networks realize that it is their simple responsibility to keep the people informed.

I once talked to a TV network employee about this and it seemed to have shocked him that I was this passionate about their then soon to be launched news channel. So far though, I’m not too keen on all their programming, considering that they keep on saying their news program is a key selling point. BUT, it still is a good starting point. At least, these programs exist and they are now more accessible to the masses.  

The Political Circus: Maalaala Mo Kaya , More Musicals, and Pres / VP Endorsements

Maalaala Mo Kaya

Enrile conveniently had his life story featured on MMK. JPE has been criticized for the move, showing these 2 episodes a few weeks before the elections where his son (with the same name) is running for a senatorial post.

JPE with stars of his MMK 2 part episode, Enrique Gil and Bugoy Cariño.

Photo from Jack Enrile’s Facebook page 

He should be criticized, I agree. I was just surprised there were actually people who criticized him. I mean as much as I would like to say shame on Enrile, a whole lot of other candidates have done this stunt too. And, no one particularly made a big deal out of those episodes.

The Cayatano clan comes to mind. I remember more than a few episodes featuring the Cayatanos and they actually won their posts so perhaps the MMK stunt has been quite effective.

I also remember a Miriam Santiago episode on MMK, starring Julia Clarete and Tessie Tomas, shown just before she won her current senatorial term.

What I would like to say really is: shame on all of you.

Also... JPE = Enrique Gil? OH. Please.

On this note, I would just like to say that I wonder what brand new creative plot lines emerged in these MMK episodes. I didn't see the 2 part feature. All I am saying is that his life story has been embellished so many times that no one is even enraged about it anymore. It seems people just expected it to be the norm now. 

More Musicals

The Glee Kids - Again, the most ridiculous one I’ve seen so far, in my opinion is Jack Enrile’s musical ad. WHY? There a lot of reasons why but the main reason for me is this: Jinggoy Estrada and Tirso Cruz III dancing beside Jack Enrile like they are chuwariwap dancers with GLEE expressions plastered on their faces.

Seriously, I can’t get over it. Jinggoy Estrada is already a senator. Why does he have to do this to himself? Ok, to get an ally in position, but does he really have to look that stupid? I half expected him to pull out spirit fingers. I watched him in senate probes and I began to see him in a semi respectable way for actually knowing and understanding the things that he talks about (because well, not all of them do) but now this. Dancing like a silly idiot beside Jack Enrile Jr. like a backup dancer. Um...?

And Tirso Cruz III? These days he usually gets the strict father figure role in shows and then he suddenly bursts into this goofy dance? It’s just so off.  

Imagine that: a commercial featuring a congressman in the middle, a senator at the side and a veteran actor on the other side and all of them dancing like fools with smiley Glee faces. It’s ridiculous. It’s weird. It’s sad.

Call Me Maybe? Call Me JV?  - At first I thought: OMG they didn’t go there. Then I listen closely to it again – and OMG they did go there.

Wow. JV’s TV ad actually featured the song Call Me Maybe and the tagline is actually “Let's Vote for JV”.

Wow. Wonder what Carly Rae Jepson and Justin Bieber think of that. (Wonder if they were paid some copyright fee or something for this?) 

screen cap from the the youtube video of the JV Ejercito Call Me Maybe Ad

For a split second I was thinking, how will it go? You know cause it’s a song about giving one’s number and probably hooking up. But as I listened closely, they actually changed the lyrics and included lines like “Hey, siya si JV, like ng marami, para sa bayan. Let's vote for JV”

"eto na ang LIKE ng tao" --- Um, O..K...? 

In theory, the concept isn’t so bad. Is it cheesy, pandering and clearly out to capitalize on youth trends and social media? For sure. It is effective? Maybe?

At least, I would prefer to look at random kids (and security guards, a couple in their bedroom, a guy on his treadmill, and a host of other characters featured in the video) singing/dancing in these so called youtube videos than to see Jack Enrile Jr with Jinggoy and Tirso Cruz III dance around like Glee Kids. 

However, all of this it still makes me feel sad about Philippine politics: politicians dancing like Glee kids,  dressed up youtubers singing that a politician is "like ng marami".... SIGH.   

Noy Noy & Binay Goes Into Overtime

I am starting to wonder how much of the President and VP’s time is spent shooting these days. It seems they are endorsing people left and right. TV, radio, sorties… 

I mean, other ads are better than others. Though it makes me somewhat cringe sometimes when the President or the VP even have to repeat the corny taglines of whoever they endorse. 

It’s funny. It’s weird. But I guess, hey, that’s just politics. 

Big Gulp Election: Survey Says

I remember this marketing move being featured on CNN way back when Obama was merely a presidentiable in the US. I thought the idea was cute then. 

Today I went to a 7-Eleven and took this photo:

Photo by: My Left and Right Brain

Based on this sample, it seems the Team Pnoy cups are sold out (what would have been stacked on the left most column) and the Una cups (middle column) are even selling less than the “3^rd Party” cups (right most column)…

Is this an accurate picture of the pulse of the masses? More accurate than the often insulted and discredited SWS surveys?

Probably isn't the most scientific way of sampling...

I mean, what if Team Pnoy supporters are just thirstier than others and they bought 2 drinks each? Or, what about the other simply thirsty Team Pnoy customers who had to just pick a cup (Una or Independent) just so they could just drink when the yellow cups ran out. Then again, what if there was some supply problems with the yellow cups and they just weren't available to begin with (and are not sold out as the picture made me to believe)?

Anyway, who really knows?

Still, I wonder...